Rwanda is heading into May 2026 with slightly below-average rainfall expected, according to the Rwanda Meteorological Agency. The outlook suggests a modest shift compared to the same period last year, when rains were generally more evenly distributed and, in some areas, slightly higher.
For this year, total rainfall is projected to range between 50mm and 230mm nationwide. While this still falls within the country’s long-term seasonal average of 62mm to 250mm, forecasters note that most regions are likely to experience a mild reduction, particularly in the second half of the month.
In comparison, May 2025 saw more consistent rainfall across several parts of the country, especially in the western and northern highlands, where wet conditions tended to hold for longer into the month. This year, however, the agency says a gradual drying trend is expected after the first ten days of May.
The early part of the month is likely to remain relatively stable, with near-normal rainfall, before conditions shift towards drier weather as May progresses.
Western and Northern highlands to receive highest rainfall
The western and northern highlands are expected to record the heaviest rains, with totals ranging between 200mm and 230mm. This includes districts such as Burera, Musanze, Nyabihu, Ngororero, Karongi, Rusizi, and Nyamasheke.
Similar conditions are expected in parts of Nyamagabe and Nyaruguru, as well as sections of Rutsiro and Rubavu.
The City of Kigali, along with much of the Northern, Western, and Southern provinces, is forecast to receive between 150mm and 200mm, although some parts of eastern Kigali may see slightly lower amounts.
In the Southern Province and parts of the East, including Nyagatare, Gatsibo, Kayonza, Rwamagana, Ngoma, and Bugesera, rainfall is expected to range between 100mm and 150mm.
The lowest totals, between 50mm and 100mm, are likely in parts of the Eastern Province.
Temperatures and winds remain within seasonal range
Temperatures are expected to remain within normal seasonal limits, with maximums ranging between 19°C and 29°C across the country.
Warmer conditions of 26°C to 29°C are expected in Kigali, the Amayaga region, Bugarama plain, and much of the Eastern Province. Cooler daytime temperatures of 19°C to 21°C are likely in higher altitude areas such as Nyabihu, Musanze, Ngororero, Nyamagabe, Rutsiro, and Rubavu.
Night temperatures will range between 10°C and 19°C, with the coldest conditions expected in the highlands, while warmer nights are likely in Kigali and parts of the Eastern Province.
Wind speeds are forecast between 4 and 12 metres per second, with stronger winds expected mainly in western districts and lighter winds in Kigali and surrounding areas.
