The period between March to May (MAM) 2025 is critical for the equatorial part of the Greater Horn of Africa region and contributes up to 60% of the annual rainfall in many parts.
A new seasonal outlook shows a higher likelihood of below normal rainfall conditions over the eastern and western parts of the region.
Below-average rainfall is expected in much of Somalia, eastern and northern Kenya, southern and north-eastern Ethiopia, Djibouti, coastal Eritrea, western South Sudan, southern and western Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and north-western Tanzania, according to a statement issued by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC).
It said that wetter-than-normal conditions are expected over most parts of Tanzania, eastern Uganda, eastern South Sudan, and western Ethiopia.
Additionally, weather prodictions show a high chance (over 70%) that the seasonal rainfall will exceed 200 mm in south-western Ethiopia, western Kenya, Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, and Tanzania.
The temperature forecast indicates a higher likelihood of warmer-than-normal conditions across most parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, with the highest probabilities (more than 75%) over Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti, northern Somalia, and northern Kenya.
An early to normal onset is expected in most parts of the region, except for localised areas in central Kenya, southern Ethiopia, and central Somalia, where a delayed start is likely.
The predicted climatic conditions for the MAM 2025 season are likely to have gender-differentiated impacts on the affected populations, with more adverse effects expected to be pronounced among women, children, older persons, and persons with disabilities. ICPAC urges all stakeholders to take proactive steps to reduce these impacts on the most vulnerable populations.
Commenting on the new predictions, Dr. Abdi Fidar, the Officer-in-Charge at ICPAC, noted that “As the IGAD region faces increasing climate variability and extremes—droughts, floods, and rising temperatures—platforms like GHACOFs are essential for building a shared understanding of risks and fostering collaboration to mitigate their impacts.”
“The theme of this forum, Climate Services for Closing the Early Warning Gap Together, underscores the critical role of actionable, timely, and accurate climate information in bridging gaps in preparedness and response,” he said.
In line with the recommendations of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), ICPAC has implemented an objective seasonal forecast procedure to generate climate forecasts for the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). The MAM 2025 seasonal outlook was developed using January 2025 forecasts from nine Global Producing Centres (GPCs).
